Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh Elections

 Dear Readers,

The election results for Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh will be announced on the 8th of December.

The elections for Himachal Pradesh were already held on the 12th of November. The Gujarat elections will be held on the 1st and 5th of December.

The BJP is in power in both states and the Congress is the largest opposition party. The Aam Aadmi Party is also fighting the elections.

It is difficult to know who won in Himachal while in Gujarat it is easier to guess who will win.

Himachal Pradesh:

The total number of seats in the Himachal Pradesh Legislative Assembly is 68 and in order to win the elections a party must win at least 34 seats.

The previous election was held in 2017. The BJP won with 44 seats defeating the Congress which got 21 seats. The CPI(M) won 1 seat and independents won 2 seats. 

   

The BJP formed the government with a clear majority and nominated Jai Ram Thakur as the Chief Minister. 

However several bypoll elections have taken place after the election. Both the BJP and Congress won some seats in these although Congress won more - 4 to BJP's 2.

In 2022 several changes occured.

AAP competed in the elections for the first time.

AAP's seriousness towards this elections was not easy to understand. Because they contested in all of the seats and they released a manifesto. Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal, the Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann and the Deputy CM of Delhi Manish Sisodia campaigned in the State. However they did not campaign as much as the BJP and Congress. This shows that they were less serious then the main two parties.   

Congress was very serious about this election. They contested all seats and campaigned mainly with the State leadership and the national leadership - the Gandhis - were less prominent. This is because they view the Gandhis as liabilities. They were also confident of winning because in most HP elections the ruling party lost.

The BJP campaigned more aggressively than Congress. PM Modi and the national leadership were very active because they are assets. They do face anti-incumbency but they believe that their governance was good enough to earn them another term.

The opinion polls show a narrow race between the BJP and the Congress. The BJP is in a slight lead with more seats and a higher vote share, but not enough for me as an analyst to predict a victory for them.

I cannot predict this election and will not be surprised if there arises a hung assembly.

Gujarat:

The total number of seats in the Gujarat Legislative Assembly is 182 and the majority mark is 91 seats. 

The previous election was held in 2017. The BJP won with 99 seats defeating the Congress which got 77 seats. The rest of the seats were won by other smaller parties and independents.

The BJP formed the government with a thin majority and nominated Vijay Rupani as the Chief Minister. 

In 2022 the situation is different.

Congress is not serious about this election. They are contesting all of the seats and campaigned mainly without the Gandhis. This because they view the family as a liability. They are also not confident of winning because of several reasons, they have not won Gujarat since 1995 when the BJP first came to power, the loss of the 2019 general elections and subsequent state elections under Rahul Gandhi's leadership made them reduce their confidence in him. The Bharat Jodo Yatra of Rahul Gandhi does not go through Gujarat which shows he is not giving much importance to it.

The BJP are campaigning much more aggressively than Congress. PM Modi and the national leadership are very active because they are assets for the BJP. They do face anti-incumbency but they believe that their governance was good enough to earn them another term. And also adding the popularity of the PM and of the ideology of Hindutva makes it easy for them to win.

The only real challenge to the BJP comes from the AAP. The AAP has put more energy into the Gujarat elections than the Himachal Pradesh elections. Kejriwal has done several rallies. So have other AAP leaders.

The opinion polls say that the BJP will win but the question is will they gain more seats than 2017 or lose seats. The polls are inconclusive on this point. One interesting point all of them show is that the AAP will get some seats but will be behind Congress. It will be important to see which party's votes will be lost to AAP.

I can predict that the BJP will win but by how much I don't know.

In Conclusion:

I cannot predict the results of the Himachal Pradesh elections only that whichever party wins will win narrowly.

I can predict the results of the Gujarat elections, BJP will won, but by what margin, I cannot predict.